More rain and bad weather for Samoa

By Talaia Mika • 05 November 2023, 11:00PM

A flood, wind and heavy rain advisory and a marine warning remain in effect for Samoa amid predictions that two to three cyclones are predicted to form from November to April 2024.

The Samoa Meteorology Office in its recent weather update on Sunday confirmed the advisories and with the marine warning stating potential impacts of strong currents with very rough seas, and fresh to strong and gusty easterly winds and poor visibility during rain.

"An intense high-pressure system located further Southeast of Samoa continues to direct fresh to strong Easterly winds, along with the high wave and swell activities of 2.5-3.5 meters over our marine waters," the notice reads.

"These conditions are expected to persist for today towards the beginning of the new week. Hence, the continuation of Marine Warning for all marine waters."

Last week on Friday, the heavy rainfall experienced by the country caused heavy traffic up to the afternoon which the Meteorology Office says were “normal cloud developments” with no cyclone predicted from the conditions.

The downpour in town on Friday led to minor flooding in Fugalei area and by the afternoon the heavy rain had ceased and the sky cleared up.

Meanwhile, the Public and Marine SWI can be issued simultaneously if two different synoptic weather systems are expected to impact land areas or coastal to open waters.

The Public and Marine warnings and advisories can be inserted into one SWI if one synoptic weather system is expected to impact both land areas and coastal to open waters.

For the public weather information, the meteorology office states that major convection that previously provided heavy downpours are mainly located just to the North of Samoa.

"Hence, the downgrading of Heavy Rain and Flood Warnings into Heavy Rain and Flood Advisories. In addition, the speed convergence along with an Easterly wind flow approaches the islands from Southeast. This system is forecasted to induce isolated showers with brief heavy falls and few thunderstorms as well as strong and gusty periods over the group for today. Therefore, the above-mentioned Advisories remain valid for all of Samoa.

Potential Impacts include: poor visibility, foggy and slippery roads over mountain passes and ranges, pooling near roadsides and waterways; Possible landslides at mountain passes. Possible flooding in rivers and vulnerable areas; Strong and gusty winds at times.

The Assistant Chief Executive Officer (A.C.E.O.) for the Meteorology division, Afa’ese Dr. Luteru Tauvale confirmed to this newspaper last week that there was no cyclone predicted this weekend.

He said because of the continuous rain on Thursday and Friday many assumed a cyclone was coming but the weather condition would have been a lot worse if it was.

The A.C.E.O. explained the national tropical cyclone and climate seasonal outlook for Samoa from November to April 2024 with prediction that two to three tropical cyclones were likely to form.

This is contrary to reports from the 2023 to 2024 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook authored by the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlooks that forecast at least one tropical cyclone would be experienced by Samoa.

The latest data, he said, shows the warm sea surface temperature location has totally switched and moved to the North and closer to Samoa and areas in the equator moving to Central America.

“So the warm sea surface temperature has fallen back and is located near Samoa compared to the last three years,” said Dr. Tauvale.

“Most of the forecast for tropical cyclones occurs around the area where there is warm sea surface temperature which is now the North. Cyclones that form in the northern side move to the south, and it doesn’t mean that all of the two to three cyclones will occur over Samoa but it can move within the neighbouring areas to Samoa and we will feel the impact.”

The report stated the cyclone season extends from November to April with peak tropical cyclone activity normally may be experienced from January to March.