The current dry spell brought about the El Nino weather pattern could continue into next year and peak in January, according to a climatologist.

The dry spell has already impacted neighbouring countries with Tonga declaring a drought while a similar warning has been issued in Vanuatu.

Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) climatologist Philip Malsale said the El Nino weather pattern is expected to peak sometime in January before going back to normal around the second quarter of next year.

“One thing that we have to remember is that every El Nino is different and the impact is also different for each particular country," said Mr. Malsale. "For this current El Nino, some countries might be drier than normal or become drier in the later stage of the year.

"And that is why it is really important to consult with national meteorological services like Samoa Meteorological Services to provide a downscaled, in-country outlook for the next three to six months.

“Currently we see the El Niño event going into the cyclone season and if you have a cyclone going on at the same time with the El Nino event then that is a double impact for the country. If we are looking at coming out of El Nino in the second quarter of next year, we are going inside a dry season so we can see that the impacts will continue to linger on.

“Samoa’s case is very interesting because we are in the borderline where surface temperatures are warm and transition to cold and it’s really hard to precisely predict when Samoa is experiencing dry conditions and that’s why it is important to consult with national weather services in Samoa.” 

The impacts will affect shallow root crops firstly and further down you have root crops that will also be affected and if this stays on for 12 months or even six, larger fruit trees can be affected as well.

“For water sources, you can have water tanks to store water because below-normal rainfall is expected and villages may have to ration water,” added Mr. Malsale. “We might have to go into this stage in Samoa and we have to be cautious of what the climate can cause for communities.”

El Nino events typically occur every two to seven years but the timing and intensity can vary and it is important for communities to monitor weather updates and adapt to potential changes.

Historically, El Nino has caused reduced rainfall in the southwest Pacific (from southern Papuan New Guinea to southeast Cook Islands ) and enhanced rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific (i.e. Tuvalu, Kiribati, Tokelau and Nauru). Also, the number of tropical cyclones and their preferred tracks are usually affected by El Nino.

Assistant Chief Executive Officer of the Samoa Meteorological Services, Afaese Dr. Luteru Tauvale told the Samoa Observer recently that the El Nino weather pattern is to blame for the dry conditions that Samoa is currently experiencing. 

“The La Nina is classified according to the movement of the warm sea surface temperature within the Pacific region," said Afaese. "For the last three years, we were in the La Nina season where we experienced a lot of rainfall and flooding. 

"But for this year we have switched to the opposite, El Nino which is low rainfall and we are starting to see that. We are still monitoring and just by basic observation, conditions are getting drier noticeably as the grass has become drier and starting to get brown. 

"These short root plants are drying up and that is an indication that there is little rainwater because of prolonged periods of no rainfall.”