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Explainer: Power struggle: where to from here?
By Jarrett Malifa
•
19 January 2025, 9:32PM
Samoa’s political landscape has been shaken, with uncertainty following a series of dramatic developments. It began with ten criminal charges laid against FAST party founder La‘auli Leuatea Polataivao, leading to his removal by Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata‘afa. Fiame’s decision was followed by the dismissal of three Cabinet Ministers and all 13 Associate Ministers, leaving the party in disarray. In response, La‘auli called for Fiame and five Ministers to be removed from FAST, creating uncertainty about the party’s future.
Tuesday’s parliamentary session will be pivotal in determining the country’s direction. This analysis examines the key players, possible scenarios, constitutional possibilities, and implications for Samoa’s leadership, party dynamics, and the prospect of early elections.
Key players
- Fiame Naomi Mata‘afa: Samoa’s Prime Minister and a pivotal figure in the current political crisis. Her decisions and ability to garner support from both sides of Parliament are critical for her to retain power and maintain stability.
- La‘auli Leuatea Polataivao: Founder of FAST and a powerful orator, his influence cannot be underestimated. However, he faces immense pressure with key members leaving the party and a looming criminal court case threatening his political future.
- Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi: A seasoned political veteran, Tuilaepa holds significant leverage in the current turmoil. His ability to influence a vote of confidence and potentially capitalise on FAST’s division positions him as a key player in determining Samoa’s political direction.
The race to 27: numbers decide the fate
The numbers tell the story. La‘auli claims a bloc of 20 MPs, Fiame retains support from five, HRPP holds 18, and nine MPs remain unaligned. With 27 votes needed for a majority in the 53-seat Parliament, the path to stable leadership depends on careful negotiation and alliances. These figures highlight how critical strategy will be in deciding Samoa’s political future.
Factors influencing the numbers game
The numbers game in Parliament is not as straightforward as it might seem, especially when it comes to a vote of no confidence. Each MP must weigh the risks and benefits of their decision, particularly the possibility of triggering a snap election. Their vote carries personal stakes—political survival, party loyalty, and the potential impact on Samoa’s stability. These considerations make the race to secure a majority a far more complex and strategic process than just counting vote
- Readiness for a snap election: Among La‘auli’s 20 MPs, not all may want a snap election due to the risks of losing their seats. This uncertainty could weaken his bloc and lead to shifts in allegiance.
- Anonymous voting: If the vote is anonymous, MPs can act without fear of retaliation, increasing the chance of betrayal and making outcomes harder to predict.
- Party hoppers’ hesitation: Two MPs who resigned from HRPP to join FAST may hesitate to face voters again. Their uncertainty could sway them to back Fiame for stability.
- Anti-Tuilaepa and La‘auli sentiment: Fiame aligning with Tuilaepa may alienate MPs with strong anti-Tuilaepa or anti-La‘auli views, influencing their decisions during the vote.
- La‘auli’s network: A seasoned politician with a powerful network and oratory skills, La‘auli wields significant influence. If he consolidates his bloc, he could command the majority and reshape the government’s future.
The outcome depends on MPs balancing personal stakes with party loyalty, making negotiations and strategy critical in the days ahead.
Power reset
If a vote of no confidence in Parliament succeeds, it could possibly trigger a snap election, sending the entire country to the polls. This scenario opens the door for a complete reset in Samoa’s political landscape. New parties could emerge, fresh candidates may step forward, and dark horses with ambitions for the role of Prime Minister might finally take centre stage. From this point, anything is possible—party swapping, unexpected alliances, and the formation of a government led by previously sidelined figures. This moment of uncertainty could reshape Samoa’s political future.
Can a prime minister and ministers be chosen without party allegiance?
Samoa’s political uncertainty highlights the question of how the Prime Minister can govern amid the fragmentation of FAST. With some ministers dismissed and FAST founder La‘auli asserting control over a significant bloc, the situation raises the possibility of Fiame Naomi Mata‘afa remaining Prime Minister without full party support. A closer interpretation of the Constitution suggests this may be possible.
The Constitution appears silent on whether a Prime Minister must lead a majority party or simply command the confidence of the majority of MPs. This could mean that Fiame, even without full FAST backing, may remain in power as long as she has enough support across Parliament. This interpretation reflects a broader principle: the Prime Minister serves the collective will of Parliament, representing the interests of all Samoa rather than any single party.
The Constitution also seems to give the Prime Minister significant flexibility in forming a Cabinet. Ministers can likely be selected from any MP, meaning Fiame could appoint individuals from FAST, HRPP, or even independents if there are any, ensuring governance continues despite party divisions.
Similarly, the selection of the Speaker reinforces this idea. A Speaker is elected by a parliamentary majority, which could imply that the majority party equates to the majority of MPs, not necessarily a cohesive political group. These nuances suggest Samoa’s system prioritises parliamentary consensus over strict party lines, though the silence in the Constitution leaves room for debate and interpretation.
What does it mean in the current situation?
The recent meeting between Fiame Naomi Mata‘afa and Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi has sparked speculation about what this could mean for Samoa’s political future. In the event a vote of no confidence is tabled, this interaction might boil down to a critical decision. Both leaders, mindful of the economic and social strain of a snap election, may find common ground to avoid plunging the country into further instability.
It’s not unrealistic to imagine that some opposition MPs might consider supporting the Prime Minister to keep Parliament intact. A snap election could carry significant costs, not just financially but also in terms of public confidence and economic disruption. While all current Ministers are from FAST, if the earlier interpretation of the Constitution is accurate, it opens the possibility of HRPP Ministers and Associate Ministers joining a Cabinet led by Fiame. Such a scenario would represent a significant departure from traditional party lines and a bold step towards inclusivity.
This potential for collaboration shows that in times of division, pragmatic decisions could pave the way for stability and a government reflective of the broader interests of Samoa.
The dark horses to watch
Amid the political uncertainty, two influential figures stand out as potential disruptors, each capable of reshaping the political landscape if Samoa heads to a snap election. Their experience and networks position them as formidable players who could rally support and command influence.
- Olo Fiti Vaai: Known for his ability to mobilise support, Olo has a proven track record of winning multiple constituencies. With options to run from a different constituency if needed, he has the flexibility to position himself strategically. His experience and strategic acumen could enable him to lead a strong lineup of hopeful candidates in an election, appealing to voters seeking fresh leadership and representation.
- Fonotoe Pierre Meredith: A former Deputy Prime Minister, Fonotoe commands deep respect within HRPP and is seen as a potential alternative leader. With his calm demeanour and leadership experience, he offers a pragmatic choice as the current HRPP leadership nears a generational transition.
These dark horses represent the potential for fresh momentum in Samoa’s political landscape, should the situation escalate to a national vote. Their ability to leverage networks and build alliances could significantly influence the outcome
Tuesday’s parliamentary sitting will be a pivotal moment in Samoa’s history, as the nation braces for a political showdown with far-reaching implications.
If a snap election is avoided, it may reflect the reluctance of MPs to risk their seats and the financial and social costs of returning to the polls.
It could also mark the beginning of a government and leadership style that prioritises commanding a parliamentary majority over strict party lines, potentially redefining Samoa’s political landscape.
This moment may usher in a new way of governance, where Cabinet Ministers from different parties work together, challenging traditional norms. The possibility that the framers of the Constitution envisioned the Prime Minister as a representative of the entire country rather than a single party gains new relevance in this scenario.
As the nation waits to see how events unfold, one thing is certain: Tuesday will be a defining day for Samoa’s democracy, and the decisions made will shape its future for years to come.
By Jarrett Malifa
•
19 January 2025, 9:32PM
