The political landscape in Samoa faces growing tension following Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa’s termination of influential FAST party chairman, La'auli Leuatea Schmidt, from his cabinet portfolio. As divisions deepen within the ruling party, many are questioning the next steps and potential outcomes.

Immediate Fallout and the Caucus Meeting

The dismissal has triggered significant unrest within FAST, with party members and supporters rallying behind La’auli. A critical caucus meeting, reportedly requested by La’auli, has been convened to address internal divisions and discuss leadership.

• Support for La’auli: Many FAST MPs have expressed dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister’s decision, raising concerns about her leadership. The caucus meeting could become a platform for party members to challenge her authority.
• Potential outcomes of the caucus:
  • Call for unity: Members may push for reconciliation to maintain party unity ahead of next year’s general election.
  • Leadership challenge: If discontent persists, members could move to replace Fiame as party leader. While removing Fiame as party leader would significantly weaken her position, it would not automatically remove her as Prime Minister. However, a subsequent loss of party support in Parliament could lead to a vote of no confidence.

Vote of No Confidence in Parliament

If the internal divisions escalate, FAST MPs could table a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister in the Legislative Assembly.

Procedure: A no-confidence motion requires a majority of MPs (at least 27 out of 53) to pass. FAST holds 35 seats, meaning internal party support is crucial for the motion’s success.

• Possible outcomes:
  • PM removed: If the motion succeeds, the Head of State must terminate Fiame’s appointment.
  • Parliament dissolved: However, even if the motion is passed, Fiame could request the Head of State to dissolve Parliament, triggering a snap election instead of being terminated.

Snap Election Scenarios

A snap election could occur if Parliament is dissolved following a no-confidence vote or if political instability persists. A snap election refers to an unscheduled election that occurs earlier than the next planned general election, requiring the entire country to go to the polls again to elect a new Parliament.

• Challenges for FAST: Divisions within FAST could weaken their position in a snap election, allowing the opposition Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) to regain power.
• HRPP’s role: The opposition, with 18 seats, could capitalise on the turmoil, presenting itself as a stable alternative. Tuilaepa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi, HRPP leader, has already suggested a snap election might be necessary.
• Emergence of new alliances: Other influential MPs may exploit the situation by forming their alliances to create a majority and vie for the Prime Minister’s role. In such a scenario, these alliances could potentially form a new government, resulting in a different Prime Minister entirely if they secure enough seats in a snap election.

Role of the Courts

La’auli’s criminal charges remain a central issue. If FAST opts to wait for court proceedings, the party risks prolonged instability.Acquittal: Could strengthen La’auli’s position within FAST.

• ·  Potential outcomes:
  • Acquittal: If La’auli is cleared, his influence within FAST may grow, putting further pressure on Fiame.
    
    
  • Conviction: A conviction for La’auli could be the end of his political career, as electoral laws disqualify any election candidate or sitting MP from office if they are convicted in Samoa or another country within eight years of their nomination for an offence punishable by death or imprisonment for a term of four years or more.

Opposition Strategy

HRPP is likely to exploit the situation to its advantage. Their strategy may include:

• Supporting a no-confidence motion to destabilise FAST.
• Advocating for a snap election, framing the current government as divided and ineffective.
• Using public dissatisfaction with the political discord to rally support.

Alternative Coalition Options

Fiame could consider reaching out to MPs outside of FAST, including members of the HRPP, to secure support in the Legislative Assembly. With some FAST members reportedly reluctant to face a snap election due to fears of not being re-elected, Fiame’s strong personal standing in the electorate could provide her with leverage to:

• Form a New Party: Fiame could establish a new political party and attract MPs from both FAST and HRPP, as well as independents, to join her. However, under Samoa’s rules, MPs switching parties would need to resign and contest by-elections, or wait until the next general election to formally change affiliations. This option could be pursued in conjunction with a snap election, allowing Fiame to leverage her strong public support to form a new majority.
  
  
• Build a Coalition: By forming a coalition with other MPs, including independents, Fiame could retain her position as Prime Minister while reconfiguring the political landscape in Parliament. This approach could also be executed during a snap election, enabling her to negotiate alliances and secure a majority mandate from the electorate.

This approach highlights that while Fiame could maintain leadership through strategic alliances, avoiding a snap election may not be feasible if structural shifts in party loyalties are involved.

Likely Scenarios for FAST

The following scenarios may unfold:

• Fiame holds leadership: If the caucus backs Fiame, the party may focus on unity and damage control, prioritising preparations for the general election.
• La’auli gains ground: If La’auli’s supporters dominate the caucus, Fiame could face increasing pressure to resign. A leadership change would likely shift FAST’s political strategy.
• Internal stalemate: Prolonged infighting may weaken FAST’s public image, affecting its chances in the general election and potential snap polls.
• Samoa’s political stability hangs in the balance as FAST navigates internal divisions. The outcomes—from leadership changes to a snap election—depend on the party’s ability to resolve differences and maintain parliamentary confidence.

Samoa’s political stability hangs in the balance as FAST navigates internal divisions. The outcomes—from a leadership change to a snap election—depend on the party’s ability to resolve its differences and maintain parliamentary confidence. The current risk for FAST is that passing a motion of no confidence against Fiame could backfire, as it might result in a snap election which the majority may not want or be prepared for, given the uncertainty of being re-elected. On the other hand, HRPP would most likely welcome a snap election as it presents an opportunity to regain power. The next few weeks will be pivotal in shaping Samoa’s political future.