France’s new Prime Minister and his Overseas Territories Minister have set a conciliatory pathway for New Caledonia. This follows months of violent protests there over France’s attempted imposition of unilateral changes to voter eligibility, which would have reduced the impact of the indigenous vote. Paris is providing some hope that democratically based agreement on future governance might yet be achieved.

Prime Minister Michel Barnier presented his first general policy statement in Paris on 1 October, giving some attention to France’s overseas territories and specifically New Caledonia. Paris is being challenged to the point of violence and bloodshed in New Caledonia over its handling of governance issues, protests in Martinique over living costs, and influxes of migrants to Mayotte from neighbouring Comoros. He has pledged a “listen, respect and dialogue” approach, and that he will head a new inter-ministerial committee on the overseas territories.

Barnier announced a major concession demanded by New Caledonia independence supporters, pledging that he would not take the final step of convening the joint houses of parliament to finalise the controversial voter eligibility reform, signifying the effective withdrawal of the constitutional amendment. He said President Macron would confirm this when he meets New Caledonia’s representatives in the French parliament in November. This meets one of the principle demands of independence leaders: that the voting reform be scrapped. President Macron had so far only said he would “suspend” it.

Barnier said a new period of economic and social reconstruction will begin, with efforts to achieve political consensus about future governance. He said local elections will be postponed till the end of 2025. A parliamentary mission headed by the Presidents of the French National Assembly and Senate will visit New Caledonia. Barnier indicated his personal oversight of the New Caledonia portfolio.

Most importantly, Barnier’s comments come after a listening process. A multi-party New Caledonian delegation has been holding meetings in Paris. On 30 October, the new Overseas Territories Minister François-Noël Buffet (who has headed a Senate commission on New Caledonia and is thus familiar with the issues) outlined his approach to the delegation:

Regaining consensus in decision-making.

Returning rapidly to dialogue with all parties.

Favouring a speedy return to public order.

Supporting social and economic reconstruction.

Barnier’s and Buffet’s announcements represent major conciliatory efforts by France, and are significant both for New Caledonia and Australia, New Caledonia’s closest neighbour.

While it is Barnier who has made the main announcements, there is no doubt that President Macron is engaged, with the next step being his meeting with New Caledonian parliamentarians.

The fact that Barnier has given such early priority to its overseas territories and to New Caledonia, even as France is reeling from the shock of the election of a national minority parliament unprecedented under the Fifth Republic, reflects France’s underlying determination to keep the territories. His proposals on New Caledonia indicate some flexibility, if necessary, to do so. Buffet’s indication that Paris needs to “regain” impartiality is a significant gesture, a virtual admission of past partiality, which was a major criticism of France’s handling of the third independence referendum in 2021 and developments since.

Barnier’s appropriation of the New Caledonia portfolio is a strong guarantee for the future. At the same time, perhaps conscious of the fragility of his government and its vulnerability to censure motions, he has ensured some ongoing institutional attention by designating as heads of the dialogue mission the most senior members of the French parliament. Senate President Gérard Larcher has taken a longstanding and constructive role on New Caledonia.

Sending a senior dialogue mission also signals to regional Pacific countries, which had offered a Pacific Islands Forum mediating mission, that France is in control. While France has agreed to New Caledonia receiving a PIF mission, that visit is unlikely to take place before the French one.

The reaction by local parties in New Caledonia has been varied. The cross-party group that met Buffet has unequivocally supported Barnier’s approach. While moderate loyalist Philippe Gomès expressed support, hardline loyalists have been critical, with one saying the minister did not grasp the seriousness of the situation. Independence parties will be reassured by the termination of the voter eligibility reform, but will maintain their call for another self-determination vote after the botched third referendum, and for the release of their leaders in detention in metropolitan France.

Whether France’s concessions will suffice to end unrest in New Caledonia remains to be seen. Independence parties are divided, and their leaders’ capacity to control the frustrations of young Kanaks, now unleashed, is uncertain. But there is no doubt that France has put in an admirable effort.

This article was first published on Lowy Institute’s blog site The Interpreter. Denise Fisher is a Visiting Fellow at ANU's Centre for European Studies. Denise was an Australian diplomat for thirty years, serving in Australian diplomatic missions as a political and economic policy analyst in Rangoon, Nairobi, New Delhi, Kuala Lumpur and Washington DC before being appointed Australian High Commissioner in Harare (1998-2001), accredited to Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, Angola and Malawi; then Australian Consul-General in Noumea, New Caledonia (2001-2004).