‘No confidence’ and ‘snap election’ are two phrases that dominated our media’s political news in the last couple of weeks.

Even Parliament’s last session opened with the Speaker stamping out any proposal to move a vote of ‘no confidence’ in Prime Minister Fiamē’s leadership of the Government which would have led to a ‘snap election’ had the House passed it. Like a Siamese twin, the two cannot be separated.

Snap election or not, Fa’atuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST) and the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) have different views.

Leader of the HRPP, Tuila’epa Sa’ilele says that if FAST cannot sort out their differences, then we should have an election sooner. “Go back to an election if you cannot unite as one and also if you cannot take care of the government as leader.” (SO Jan 28)

Chairman of FAST, La’auli Leuatea Schmidt says his members do not support a snap election or a vote of ‘no confidence’ against Prime Minister Fiamē. His rationale? “It will only place the burden on the shoulder of the nation.” (SO Jan 21)

For this political observer, based on statements and press releases by both parties, the question of a snap election is no longer ‘if” but ‘when’. The next session of Parliament will give an indication that the chasm between the two factions of FAST is too deep and hurting particularly for some members makes it difficult for them to talk to each other again.

Right now, Prime Minister Fiamē’s Government is on very shaky ground and its support in the House is no more than the ministers that FAST expelled last month and others whose expulsion is still being considered according to the FAST Chairman as reported by this newspaper. And with the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) staying mum on whether they will throw their support behind her, the Prime Minister will find implementing her government’s agenda and getting the House to pass legislation extremely difficult.

However, for the FAST Party from hereon, it is likely they will have more crises awaiting them. They have already made public statements through different spokespeople condemning Fiamē’s government:

• “Who selects the Prime Minister? It is us. We’ve decided[d] to remove her. We believe it is here. We have already informed the Speaker [of Parliament] about our new appointments.”, and “We don’t support a snap election.” MP La’aluli Schmidt, Leader of FAST (Samoa Observer, 21 January.)  

• “[T]he Prime Minister should tender her resignation as she knows she no longer has the confidence of her political party.” MP Ale Vena (Samoa Observer, 21 January.)

• “[We are] concerned about the legitimacy of Fiamē’s current government and how a minority [faction] of FAST continues to hold power when they are no longer members of the party under which they contested the 2021 elections. The majority of the party had expressed their lack of confidence in the Prime Minister’s leadership.” MP Mulipola Analosa Ale-Molio’o (SO Jan. 28)

Prime Minister Fiamē is fully aware that this ‘no confidence’ feeling in her leadership of the government will resurface again and again in the future and has hinted at what she would do if it happened. She says that the Constitution stipulates that in such a situation, she would have to dissolve Parliament advise the Head of State and head for a snap election. (Samoa Observer 28 January).

This is where things will become tricky for FAST. If they persevere with their ‘no confidence and trust’ stand, by using it as a vendetta against the Prime Minister and her government by voting down Bills, Constitutional Amendments and Legislations that they promised the country they would enact to amend or repeal those passed by the HRPP government, that will make a mockery of them, And their credibility will be on the line. Moreover, the HRPP who sees elections happening now as the only way to restore political stability for the country will quickly support any move by FAST that will lead to the dissolution of Parliament. Should that happen, Prime Minister Fiamē will have no option but to resign. Who then will she blame? Certainly not the HRPP.

So, despite saying “We don’t want a snap election”, by withdrawing their support for Fiamē and her government, FAST will force her to call one.

If on the other hand they vote to support Fiamē and her government agenda, then everything FAST said so far – “she no longer has the confidence of her Political Party; she should tender her resignation; the legitimacy of her government is doubtful; we’ve decided to remove her [as Prime Minister and leader of the Party] – are nothing more than face-saving comments to lessen the severity of the impact of her decision to depose the Chairman of FAST and 3 other senior members of their ministerial posts.

They are in a tricky situation.